Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Josephine County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Josephine County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Josephine County

---
# Josephine in the News

![destination](./grants_pass_article.png)

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Population growth has been slowing
- Growing impact of negative natural change
- Net migration had been stable
- Net migration now expected to pick up in forecast
- Mostly updates to Grant's Pass

---

# Josephine at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Josephine </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88,090 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.40 (38,748 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Josephine Employment Changes

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health services Sector Jobs: 4,292","Year: 2013 County: Josephine Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 4,208","Year: 2018 County: Josephine Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 5,856","Year: 2023 County: Josephine Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 9,357"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health 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activities Sector Jobs: 1,425"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial activities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.1818181818182,1997.1818181818182,2002.1818181818182,2007.1818181818182,2012.1818181818182,2017.1818181818182,2022.1818181818182],"y":[3282,3724,3264,3321,3025,3256,3355],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,282","Year: 1998 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,724","Year: 2003 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,264","Year: 2008 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,321","Year: 2013 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,025","Year: 2018 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,256","Year: 2023 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,355"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[329,452,360,346,262,245,244],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 329","Year: 1998 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 452","Year: 2003 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 360","Year: 2008 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 346","Year: 2013 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 262","Year: 2018 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 245","Year: 2023 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 244"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[2177,2324,2429,2686,2678,3365,3451],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,177","Year: 1998 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---

# Josephine Migration Flows

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---

# Josephine Population

.pulll-left[
Population growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower rate than what has been seen in the past.
]

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<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-051ff9a08213a6a884bb" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Josephine Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural growth continues to decline slowing growth to the county despite consistent migration.
]

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<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-5e9369d640fc3bcefb64" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Josephine Births

.pulll-right[
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2036-2040 Annual Births: 635","Year: 2041-2045 Annual Births: 628","Year: 2046-2050 Annual Births: 615"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(165,223,249,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[7.7000000000000002,7.7000000000000002],"y":[-42.469999999999999,891.87],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","dash":"dot"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":54.860938148609392},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Josephine Birth 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]

---

# Josephine Deaths

.pulll-right[
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1,672","Year: 2041-2045 Annual Deaths: 1,731","Year: 2046-2050 Annual Deaths: 1,760"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(101,3,96,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[7.7000000000000002,7.7000000000000002],"y":[-87.986583664788455,1847.7182569605575],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","dash":"dot"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Josephine Death 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]

---

# Josephine Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Growth of the population 65 and older is expected to make the composition of the county more "top-heavy".
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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 1,540","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 1,720","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 2,037","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 2,243","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 2,072","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 1,995","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 2,689","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 2,784","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 2,857","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 2,918","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 3,548","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 4,087","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 3,988","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 3,838","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 2,640","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,910","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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]

---

# Josephine Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Josephine is expected to continue to diversity as the White population slows in growth.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Josephine UGB Population Changes

---

# Josephine UGBs: Cave Junction in Context

.pux-right[
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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.79% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.56% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 484 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 730 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 968 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.80% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.70% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.26 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $8,333 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,161 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $34,594 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.06% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.66% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Josephine County: Cave Junction UGB Boundaries

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# Cave Junction UGB Pop Forecast

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# Cave Junction UGB Pop Forecast

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# Josephine UGBs: Grants Pass in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Josephine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.41% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.09% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6,356 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9,885 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16,681 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.11% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.38 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,664 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,197 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,941 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.73% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Josephine County: Grants Pass UGB Boundaries

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# Grants Pass UGB Pop Forecast

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# Grants Pass UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts